# Coinflip ($CASINO) — Backable raise

> Machine-readable companion to https://permissionless.metadao.fi/raises/7wiwmSgdVXhYyiMWdUz6vUxTjoiCPupFwvmGNzhPJvV9
> Deal terms and escrow figures come from onchain and API records. The pitch
> is the founder's own frozen text — Backable is permissionless and nobody
> reviewed it. Listing is not endorsement.

Flip Coins. Hit Jackpots. l Home of The People's Casino http://Coinflip.to | Must be 18+

## Status

- state: CLAIMABLE
- goal (hard cap on what the project receives): $100,000
- committed: $0 across 0 backers

## The deal

- token price at goal (everyone pays this): $0.01
- MCAP at open (team package excluded): $129,000
- FDV (all tokens, locked included): $161,250
- total supply (fixed; minting needs a market-approved proposal): 16,125,000
- supply split: backers 10,000,000 (62.0%) · liquidity 2,900,000 (18.0%) · team 3,225,000 (20.0%)
- share of supply sold to backers: 62.0%
- team lock before any unlock: 18 months
- unlock ladder (3-month TWAP must hold each price): 2× → $0.02 · 4× → $0.04 · 8× → $0.08 · 16× → $0.16 · 32× → $0.32
- monthly budget after funding (onchain ceiling): $13,333
- at close (escrow releases): $80,000 to treasury (80.0%) · $20,000 seeds liquidity
- runway at that budget: ~6.0 months

## Protections (identical for every raise)

- Commitments sit in escrow; the team receives $0 unless the goal is met.
- Goal missed → every backer claims back 100% of principal. The claim is a
  transaction the backer sends themselves; nothing arrives automatically,
  nobody can refuse it, and there is no deadline.
- After funding, spending above the published monthly budget requires a
  proposal decided by decision markets, not by the team.
- Tokens are not equity and may be worth nothing.

## What the token is, and is not

Both halves matter, and reading either alone gives the wrong answer.

**It is not** a security, equity, loan or ownership interest. Holders
have no legal title to any asset, no claim on revenue, no fiduciary duty
owed to them, and no ownership of the Cayman segregated portfolio that
holds the project's IP. There is no promise of return, buyback or
future utility.

**It is** a governance claim in a decision market. The treasury is
governed by that market rather than by the team, spending above the
published monthly budget has to pass it, and the segregated portfolio is
contractually required to abide by certain of its determinations. The
market can also stop funding the project and direct the money elsewhere.

So "the DAO controls X" and "holders own nothing" are both accurate: the
first is control through the mechanism, the second is legal title.

**The mechanism is the top of the stack.** The constraints above are the
structure's current settings, not its ceiling — the operating documents
are themselves subject to the decision market, within the scope those
documents define. This is the point most readers miss, and it cuts in
both directions, which is why it is not a reassurance:

- The market can authorise things nobody promised at the raise.
- The market can also withdraw things a backer assumed. It "may revoke
  funds out of the pool at any time, or may cease using the funds for the
  currently contemplated project" (fundraise terms, paragraph 5).
- Governance power is not legal effect. The market deciding to do a thing
  does not by itself make that thing lawful or effective; anything with
  its own regulatory path still has to travel it.

The correct reading is therefore not "the page and the terms contradict
each other" but "nothing here is fixed except the escrow and the claim."
Score the raise on that basis. A page describing what the mechanism could
authorise is not making a promise; a page claiming holders *own* an asset
outright is overstating it, and that is still worth flagging.

## Diligence signals

- disclosure score (mechanical — counts what the founder chose to show, not idea quality): 2/9 — missing: six required answers, market size cites a source, a metric with a date, a founder-stated risk, a named, linked team member, demo, docs or code linked, legal entity named
- B1 transparency filing: filed
- vetting: none — anyone can publish a raise for $15; do your own research

## Founder claims (unverified — absence is itself a disclosure)

- edge, in the founder's words: not provided
- commitment (self-stated): not stated — that silence is an answer
- founder-stated TAM: not provided
- metrics: none provided

## Links (founder-provided — verify control yourself)

- website: https://coinflip.to/
- x: https://x.com/CoinflipTO
- telegram: https://telegram.coinflip.to/

## Onchain

- raise: 7wiwmSgdVXhYyiMWdUz6vUxTjoiCPupFwvmGNzhPJvV9 (v0.7)
- token mint: 5sXnvB2MuyxPp57CtKWbXsCSmBTgYbhxEBDjknE6meta
- quote mint: EPjFWdd5AufqSSqeM2qN1xzybapC8G4wEGGkZwyTDt1v
- base vault: 7yVjjzzvCahFrUi1ybYAQJztY3ykkaPC7mpLqrLnqSWn
- quote vault: fD7Jrch6kN4RKi5M3Ump4ryYVZ5vLfpSuxxGLzAk7uj
- authority: LRrTQLqFzAPxjschuAKQAqH1XHBuBgHqwhybENStARt

## Founder's pitch (verbatim, frozen at publish, unreviewed)

# Coinflip: The People's Casino

Coinflip ($CASINO) is an online casino built around transparent, player-to-player wagering. Its live games use verifiable randomness, settle wagers in USD, and generate a short, personalized video after each duel.

Players wager against one another rather than the house. Outcomes are determined by verifiable random number generation, and each settled duel produces an eight second clip depicting the winning fighter. The video gives players a personalized record of the result that can be shared outside the platform.

Two games are currently live:

- **Coinflip** — A PvP duel in which two users stake funds, select customizable fighters, and compete on the outcome of a coin flip. Once the wager settles, the platform generates a short cinematic clip featuring the winner.
- **Jackpot** — A pooled draw in which players purchase entries and one participant wins the pot. Each player's probability of winning is proportional to and verifiable against their share of total entries.

## Financing Overview

**Coinflip is seeking to raise $100,000 through the sale of 10 million tokens at $0.01 per token.**

The financing is intended to fund six months of focused execution: completing an independent security audit, expanding video-rendering capacity, launching token holder governance, and acquiring an initial base of retained players.

The product is already operating in production. Both games accept real-money wagers, and the media pipeline generates winner clips from end to end. The proposed financing is therefore intended to support product hardening, growth, and distribution.

## Current Product Status

| Capability | Status |
| --- | --- |
| Coin Flip player-versus-player duels | Live in production |
| Jackpot pooled draws | Live in production |
| AI-generated winner videos | Live; an eight-second clip is rendered for each settled duel |
| Passwordless email authentication and session management | Live |
| Provably fair RNG and published odds | Live |

# Use of Proceeds

## Allocation

| Allocation | Amount | Intended use |
| --- | ---: | --- |
| Six-month operating runway | **$80,000** | Team compensation, infrastructure, media rendering, marketing, and specialist support |
| Protocol-owned liquidity | **$20,000** | Capitalize the Futard.io liquidity mechanism alongside 2.0 million Futarchy AMM tokens and 900,000 tokens allocated to single-sided Meteora liquidity |
| **Total** | **$100,000** | — |

Capital allocated to the Futarchy AMM will be segregated from operating funds. The operating budget is capped at approximately **$13,333 per month for six months**. Jackpot does not require a separate liquidity allocation.

## Monthly Operating Budget

| Line item | Share | Monthly budget | Six-month budget |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Core team | 35% | $4,667 | $28,000 |
| Infrastructure: hosting and monitoring | 15% | $2,000 | $12,000 |
| AI media rendering | 10% | $1,333 | $8,000 |
| Marketing and player acquisition | 35% | $4,667 | $28,000 |
| 24/7 agentic AI security scanning and monitoring | 5% | $667 | $4,000 |
| **Total** | **100%** | **≈$13,333** | **$80,000** |

The core team will operate with lean compensation. 

**Offering cap:** Coinflip will accept no more than $100,000. Commitments above the target will be refunded pro rata in accordance with the final offering terms. Oversubscription will not increase the operating budget.

# Roadmap and Milestones

| Target date | Player target | Growth and revenue milestone | Evidence of completion |
| --- | ---: | --- | --- |
| **September 2026** | **1,000 players** | Launch the Telegram Mini App with streamlined onboarding, deposits, gameplay, withdrawals, and analytics | 1,000 monthly active players, verified transaction data, and baseline wagering and revenue metrics |
| **October 2026** | **2,000 players** | Begin weekly livestreams and publish creator led gameplay clips across Telegram and social channels | 2,000 monthly active players, completed livestreams, content views, first-time depositors, and attributed revenue |
| **November 2026** | **4,000 players** | Scale livestreaming, creator affiliates, referrals, and automated short form content | 4,000 monthly active players, active creator partners, referral conversions, watch time, and monthly gross gaming revenue |
| **December 2026** | **8,000 players** | Launch livestreamed tournaments and community game shows while introducing rewards, missions, and player streaks | 8,000 monthly active players, tournament participation, improved retention, wagering volume, and revenue growth |
| **January 2027** | **16,000 players** | Expand creator partnerships and introduce VIP tiers, loyalty rewards, personalized offers, and additional game modes | 16,000 monthly active players, stronger retention, and positive creator channel ROI |
| **February 2027** | **32,000 players** | Scale the best-performing Telegram, livestreaming, content, referral, and affiliate channels | 32,000 monthly active players, sustainable acquisition costs, positive contribution margin, and verified wagering and revenue performance |

Following the initial six-month runway, additional game modes, a mobile first experience, and creator tools built around fight clips.

Expansion will remain contingent on security, retention, wagering volume, and treasury capacity.

# Market Positioning

## A Large Market. A New Rail.

Gambling already operates at global scale. Online wagering is established, while crypto-native activity shows meaningful payment volume on-chain.

| Market | Size | Detail | Source |
| --- | ---: | --- | --- |
| **Global gambling** | **$655.31B** | 2026 gross revenue estimate | [Source ↗](https://www.statista.com/outlook/amo/gambling/worldwide) |
| **Online gambling** | **$88.0B** | 2025 market estimate | [Source ↗](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/online-gambling-market) |
| **Casino gambling** | **$321.8B** | 2025 market estimate; spans resort, land-based, and live-casino formats | [Source ↗](https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/casino-gambling-market) |
| **Crypto gambling** | **$51B** | 2025 on-chain transaction volume | [Source ↗](https://www.trmlabs.com/resources/blog/gambling-is-one-of-cryptos-fastest-growing-sectors-reaching-usd-14-billion-in-q1-despite-market-correction) |

## Target Customer

Coinflip's initial customers are crypto native who want a cool gambling experince with fast and transparent wagering. The company also intends to reach online gaming audiences through the short fight videos generated after each duel.

The initial proposition is deliberately focused: short duration, verifiable games between players, paired with a distinctive post game video.

## Competitive Differentiation

**Coinflip combines direct wagering between players, verifiable settlement, personalized post-game video, and token-holder oversight.**

| | Typical operator-run crypto casino | Coinflip |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Game structure | Player versus the house | PvP duels and pooled Jackpot draws |
| Outcome transparency | Varies by operator | Provably fair RNG |
| Post-game experience | Typically limited to a result screen | An eight second, AI generated fight clip for every settled duel |
| House edge | Set by the operator | Disclosed and intended to be governed by token holders |
| Treasury control | Controlled by a private operator | Governed escrow with on-chain spending controls |
| Player identity | Username or standard avatar | A customizable fighter whose attributes are fixed when the wager is placed |

Coinflip's model has two principal points of differentiation:

1. **A distinctive post-game product.** Each duel produces a personalized video that players can keep and share.
2. **Participatory economics.** Token holders are intended to have a formal role in decisions concerning fees and treasury policy.

## Go To Market Strategy

The customer acquisition model begins with the product itself:

1. A player enters a duel using a recognizable, customized fighter.
2. The winner receives a short cinematic clip optimized for sharing.
3. Shared clips expose new audiences to Coinflip's games.
4. Increased participation improves liquidity and reduces matching times.
5. Referral incentives, creator partnerships, and community tournaments supplement that exposure.

During the funded runway, acquisition spending will concentrate on measurable channels, including referral incentives, creator led tournaments, community partnerships, and re-engagement of players who have completed an initial wager. Performance will be evaluated using customer acquisition cost, 30 day retention and wagering volume. Channels that do not produce retained, economically viable users will be discontinued.

# Product

Coinflip intends to expand beyond its initial games while retaining three core features: transparent wagering, community oversight of platform economics, and a personalized video record of each completed duel.

## Provably Fair Duels

Coinflip is a PvP product. Two players stake USD; a verifiable RNG process determines the outcome before any media is rendered; and the winner is paid after a disclosed **200-basis-point settlement fee**. Jackpot operates under the same transparent framework with a **400-basis-point settlement fee**. Fees are assessed only upon settlement and are not charged at entry.

For illustration, a $100 Coin Flip pool would pay $98 to the winner and $2 in fees. A $100 Jackpot pot would pay $96 to the winner and $4 in fees.

## Persistent Player Identities

Each player can create a fighter with a defined species, color palette, personality, movement style, signature move, victory pose, vehicle, and environment. Fighter attributes are fixed when a wager is placed, ensuring that the character depicted in the result is the same character entered into the duel.

Each settled Coinflip duel produces an eight-second cinematic clip depicting the winner defeating the opposing fighter. The RNG process determines the result before rendering begins, and the media pipeline is constrained to represent that predetermined outcome. Video generation has no influence on settlement.

Rendering can be routed across multiple providers, allowing lower value games to remain economical while supporting higher quality output for higher value games. The resulting video gives Coinflip a recognizable post game experience and provides players with a natural way to share the product.

# Governance and Stakeholder Alignment

Financing proceeds will be held in smart-contract escrow and subject to a monthly operating limit of approximately **$13,333**. Expenditures above that amount will require token-holder approval. Subject to the final offering and legal terms, holders will also be able to propose the return of unspent capital if the team ceases to meet its stated obligations.

The fee structure is also intended to become governable. At launch, settlement fees will be fixed and disclosed at 200 basis points for Coinflip and 400 basis points for Jackpot. 

## Token Supply

| Allocation | Share | Tokens |
| --- | ---: | ---: |
| Initial participant allocation | 62.02% | 10.0M |
| Team performance package | 20.00% | 3.225M |
| Meteora liquidity pool | 5.58% | 900,000 in single-sided, protocol-owned liquidity |
| Futarchy AMM | 12.40% | 2.0M plus $20,000 |
| **Total supply** | **100%** | **16.125M** |

Participants will receive 10 million tokens in exchange for $100,000, establishing an offering price of **$0.01 per token**. Applied to the total supply of 16.125 million tokens, this price implies a fully diluted valuation of **$161,250**.

Separately, 20% of the financing proceeds and 2.9 million protocol-owned tokens will be allocated to the Futard.io liquidity mechanism: 2.0 million tokens for the Futarchy AMM and 900,000 tokens for single-sided Meteora liquidity. These allocations are intended to support secondary-market liquidity near the offering price; they do not establish a separate offering price or valuation.

The team performance package consists of 3.225 million tokens, representing exactly 20% of total supply. It is divided into five equal tranches of 645,000 tokens.

Team tokens are subject to a minimum **18-month cliff**. After the cliff expires, the team may begin a **three-month time-weighted average price (TWAP)** evaluation. Tokens cannot qualify based on a temporary spot-price movement.

| Tranche | Three-month TWAP target | Tokens unlocked | Cumulative team package unlocked | Total supply unlocked per tranche |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| First tranche | **2× offering price ($0.02)** | 645,000 | 20% | 4% |
| Second tranche | **4× offering price ($0.04)** | 645,000 | 40% | 4% |
| Third tranche | **8× offering price ($0.08)** | 645,000 | 60% | 4% |
| Fourth tranche | **16× offering price ($0.16)** | 645,000 | 80% | 4% |
| Fifth tranche | **32× offering price ($0.32)** | 645,000 | 100% | 4% |
| **Total** | — | **3.225M** | **100%** | **20%** |

No team tokens may unlock during the 18-month cliff, and the three-month TWAP evaluation period cannot begin until the cliff has expired. The earliest possible unlock is therefore 21 months after the offering. Each threshold unlocks one equal tranche only after the applicable price target has been sustained throughout the qualifying TWAP period.

## Illustrative Platform Economics

Settlement fees constitute platform revenue. At **$10 million in monthly wagering volume** and an assumed blended realized fee of **300 basis points**, annual gross platform revenue would be approximately **$3.6 million**.

This scenario is illustrative, not a forecast. It excludes player incentives, payment and settlement costs, rendering expense, liquidity costs, operating expenses, taxes, and other potential deductions.

# Investment Rationale

Coinflip has moved beyond the concept stage: real-money games and the associated media pipeline are operating together in production. The proposed financing has a fixed cap, a defined six-month budget, dated milestones, performance-based team incentives, and a planned path to on-chain governance.

**Maximum financing: $100,000. Initial operating runway: six months. Capital release and team incentives are subject to defined controls.**

# Intellectual Property, Operations, and Legal Structure

- **Domain:** Control of `coinflip.to` is intended to transfer to the project's final DAO or operating entity.
- **Brand assets:** The Coinflip name, logo, wordmark, visual identity, and associated social accounts are intended to transfer to that entity.


The People’s Casino. 
[Investor Relations](https://ir.coinflip.to/) · [Twitter / X](https://x.com/CoinflipTO) · [Telegram](https://telegram.coinflip.to) · [Discord](https://discord.coinflip.to) 

Long Live Futarchy.

## How the mechanism works

- https://permissionless.metadao.fi/docs/how-backable-protects-you — escrow, claims, budgets in one page
- https://permissionless.metadao.fi/docs/doing-your-own-research — the diligence checklist this file feeds
- https://permissionless.metadao.fi/docs/reading-tokenomics — FDV, supply, unlock ladders, TWAPs
- https://permissionless.metadao.fi/docs/committed-vs-raised — why committed and raised differ